NDA Slipping To Hold Its Fort In UP

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2022 started on a bad note for the saffron camp. The BJP is losing its widespread popularity real fast if the recent independent studies are to be believed. Uttar Pradesh has been the prized possession of the saffron camp but the future now seems very uncertain. Interestingly, successive surveys, month after month, have been recording a sharp fall in BJP’s political fortune, and also a miraculous rise of the Samajwadi Party (SP) in UP, especially since September 2021. The steep slide of the BJP led by Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh has necessitated two things to be done by the central party leadership led by Narendra Modi – putting a brake on the accelerating fall of the BJP, and if successful, reversing the direction upward in the shortest possible time, since the election to the state assembly is just around the corner. Significantly, NDA has seen a continuous fall in its vote share in UP as the result of the survey conducted during December 16 to 30 for Times Now – Navabharat by VETO.

Though the latest survey has still predicted a comfortable win for the BJP with seats for the NDA in a range of 230-249 in the house of 403, it falls by over a hundred seats from Yogi Adityanath’s claim of winning 350 seats only a few months ago. Given the last election result of 2017 in which NDA had won 325 seats, the survey indicates a heavy this time in the range of 76-95 seats. BJP’s seats were 312. The same survey has predicted SP alliance likely to win seats in the range of 137-152, three times that of the 47 seats the party had won on its own. The present survey result has projected a vote share of 38.6 percent for the NDA, which is nearly three percent lower than about 41 percent they have got in 2017. As against this SP alliance’s vote share is likely to be 34.4 percent, which can be considered a great improvement. It should be noted that BJP’s vote share that time was 39.67 percent while SP’s share was 21.82 percent.

Moreover, at the beginning of December, the ABP-CVoter survey had predicted NDA’s vote share to be 40.4 percent, SP alliances 33 percent, BSP’s 13 percent, and Congress’s 8 percent. Congress has also been increasing its vote share while the losers are chiefly BSP and BJP. When translated into seats the NDA was predicted to win seats in the range of only 212-224. It has made PM Modi and his team super active during the whole month of December. One month earlier in the first week of October, the ABP-CVoter had predicted NDA to have to lose only 0.1 percent of vote share by gaining 41.3 percent as against 41.4 percent gain in the 2017 assembly election. It means, between the first week of October and the last week of December, according to the surveys, NDA is losing about 3 percent of vote share which is considered to be a steep fall in its political fortune. If the trend continues further, Uttar Pradesh is well set for a neck and neck fight between the BJP and SP, which can bring surprising results.

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